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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page
Certification
Dedication
Acknowledgement
Table of content
Abstract
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction
Background to the study
Statement of problem
Purpose of the study
Hypothesis of the study
Significance of the study
Scope and delimitation
Definition of term
CHAPTER TWO
literature review
CHAPTER THREE
The Analysis of Time Series
The characteristics Movement of Time Series
Models of Time Series
Estimation of Seasonal Variation
Deseasonalisation of Data
Estimation of trend
Exponential smoothing
Z – chart
Forecasting
CHAPTER FOUR
Analysis of Data
Presentation of Raw Data
Method of Least Square
Additive Model
Deseasonalisation of Data
CHAPTER FIVE
Summary of findings, conclusion and recommendation
Summary of findings
Conclusion
Recommendation
References
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
The Niger State Urban Water Board covers the township of Suleja and the state Capital of Minna as well as Bida. Where on the map of Niger State you will see the geographical locations of Suleja, Minna and Bida with the state.
The Suleja total population was 53, 960 in 1987. The major source of water supply was a low – head weir at IKU River with a storage capacity of one million cubic meters, which was inadequate to meet the water demand of the township. The majority (76.4%) of the households.
Was served by sewage pit latrine facilities. Only 15.6% of the household were using waterborne sewerage systems of individual septic tank and soakaway facilities while the remainder (8%) had no toilet facilities at all. The Niger State Urban Water Board was aimed to satisfy the total waster demand of Suleja up to year 2013.
This total demand was estimated at 79.732 m3/d of which 47, 744 m3/d were for domestic consumption while the remainder was assumed to cover the commercial and industrial needs.
The Minna total population was 200, 000 in 1989 with a total water demand of 32, 200 m3/d. the installed capacity of the existing water works was 30,375 m3/d, however, it was estimated that the total output from the works could only be about 50% of the installed capacity owing to deterioration of plant and equipment.
It was also estimated that 65.2% of the households were dependent on pit latrines for faecal disposal. A little less than 6% were dependent on bucket latrines. Only 13% of the households had waterborne sanitary facilities. The balance of 16% of the households did not have any toilet facilities within the compound.
Under this project, the total capacity of water works was planned to be 70,000 m3/d including the new additional 40, 000 m3/d to meet the demand for up to year 2001. To assist the Government to determine the long – term demand.
The Niger State Urban Water Board (NSUWB) function is to control and manage all water works in the state and ensure that water is supplies to consumers in the state at reasonable charges, in potable and adequate quality Urban Water Board in Suleja is divided into
Commercial department, which comprises of marketing and accounting department
Administrative department and engineering department board on these number of labour force and technology adequate water supply without interruption is impossible proper forecast for the future to avoid previous ability of efficient co-ordination of water supply is also a problem.
But the researcher believe that “There is no hopeless situations” only people who are hopeless about situation, if so the researcher has decided to use statistical analysis as a method which helps to cope with uncertainly about the future. It is chronologically arranged as the most important factor because variable are always related with time which may be either years, months, weeks, days, hours or minutes.
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
This project is critically designed to examine the statistical analysis of water consumption in Niger State. Statistical analysis on monthly consumption of water supply can only be known if there is only one source water supply.
It is observed that consumers of water have no confidence on services render by the Niger State Urban Water Board (NSUWB) due to their poor performance and inefficient co – ordination of water supply. To justify the above statement here are question before the authority.
- What is the cause of water failure always?
- If NSUWB can supply other areas of the state without difficulties, why do they fail in local areas?
- Is it only privatization that can solve inadequate water supply in Niger State?
- Can we say the major problem of water interruption comes from the consumers of the NSUWB?
- Can it be that the water stations are not enough?
- Demand for water, can it be more than the water supply for consumption?
Can these problems be solved? How! The word “How” motivated the researcher interest to English term the NSUWB about statistical analysis used in this researcher work to answer problems faced by the NSUWB in charge of water.
1.3 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY
The purpose of the study is to statistically analyze the monthly consumption of water supply; also the purpose of the study includes the following.
- To explain role of statistical analysis on monthly consumption of Niger State Urban Water Board (NSUWB)
- To study the rate at which is consumed in the past years
- To suggests ways of improving the statistical analysis on monthly consumption of water supply.
- To measure the characteristic movement and calculated the trend by method of moving average and least square.
Once these have been identified, it would be very easy to forecast for the years ahead to prevent inadequate water supply.
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